So there you have it. Each political camp has reason to believe or has concluded that the other is mentally ill.

"Trump is a complex, if dangerously mad, man."

The authors propose that his mental illness is affecting the nation’s mental health as well.

From the forthcoming book, The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump

"Kathy Griffin’s display of Trump’s dismembered head last week prompted First Lady Melania Trump to literally wonder about Ms. Griffin’s mental health."

Friday, June 16, 2017, 7:00 AM CST

So there you have it. Each political camp has reason to believe or has concluded that the other is mentally ill.

Here is why this is important, way beyond mere name-calling or conclusions and insinuations about mental stability. Social mood generates social actions. Happy people are optimistic about the future and express this by attending happy themed entertainment such as La La Land. Unhappy people tend to seek out entertainment that mirrors their mood. "The Exorcist," billed as the most horrific movie ever made, was wildly successful during the bear market of 1973-74.

On my weblog, I have warned of disintegrating social mood for some time. The excerpt from Kathleen Parker’s column today in the column lead is a good example. Scanning newspapers today reveals a host of negatively themed mood events.

Here in San Antonio the current mayor and six of 10 city councilmen were given the boot, and voted out of office.

Representative Steve Scalise and three others were shot during a baseball practice.

In response Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi condemned the event and promptly adjourned for the day. This very lack of action is, of course, precisely what propelled Trump into office, did Congress not notice that?

Arrest warrants for twelve of Turkey’s President Erdogan’s thugs who attacked protestors in Washington, D.C. have been issued. The negative mood was that Erdogan thought he could get away with it, and in fact did.

With elections scheduled next year in both Mexico and the US, time is running out for re-negotiating NAFTA. The failure to do so casts a negative pall over negotiations that would begin in 2019.

After six years of promises, the Republicans have not passed a single large legislative act. Health care, tax reform, trade, military are all still awaiting action.

Charles Calomiris at the Columbia Business School notes that “Dodd-Frank has been a trifecta of failure. It has not achieved its objectives but has imposed enormous costs on banks and the economy.” Again Congressional progress on reform is not in sight.

Two hundred Democrats have sued President alleging his business dealings are a conflict with his Presidency. This is the route of legal harassment that eventually drove Sarah Palin from the Alaska Governor’s Office.

Kroger shares fell 19 percent yesterday on slower sales. Nine percent of Macy’s customers account for 46 percent of sales. Both statistics reflect the big shift in retailing and closing of hundreds of stores vacating shopping centers.

The New York Public Theater is staging a play based on the assassination of Julius Caesar but with Trump in the part of the Emperor. In contrast to most stage acts, the death is vividly portrayed in bloody fashion. Do not expect a cancellation of the ‘performance’ in the wake of the political shooting this past week.

And yes tech stocks that have driven the rally this year have begun selling off.

Social mood is not a crystal ball but this same sort of negativity gravitated to markets in 1973, 2000, and 2008. It bears watching.

Oil prices bottomed in February 2016 around $25. Prices then rose moving back and forth across a support line at $45. I count at least five successful tests of that level since May 2016.That level is being tested once again. Crude WTIC closed at $44.45 yesterday. Energy share prices have sagged across the board. The first sign of a turn will be when the shares of the strongest players begin climbing, amid low oil prices. This would be Chevron-Texaco, Conoco-Phillips, BP, and ExxonMobil. BP may have reversed its down-trend. The others are at least moving sideways and have popped to the upside the last few days.

The percent of energy stocks in bullish formation has fallen to 15-17 percent. This is the same level of the first pullback off the February 2016 bottom occurring March 2016. The next few trading days and weeks will reveal whether the $45 level has held or if we have more downside before a bottom is recorded.

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